Despite the pronouncements of the mainstream media and Democrat partisans about a coming “blue wave” in this year’s mid-term elections, it is clear from the available data that Republicans will win enough U.S. Senate seats to hold on to the majority. This will have huge implications on American politics as Democrats are pledging to repeal the tax cuts and attempt to stage an impeachment of President Trump.
Republicans have 47 seats that either not contested this year or are safe to likely to remain held by Republicans, while Democrats likewise hold 44 seats. The remaining nine seats will determine which party hold the majority in the Senate during the upcoming session of Congress. Below is the projections of those nine Senate races.
Arizona: In the race to replace Jeff Flake, Democrat Kirsten Sinema seems to have the edge according to recent polls. But there is one poll showing Republican Martha McSally leading by six percent. This race could go either way, but leans Democrat.
Florida: Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson has a slight edge in the polls but is polling below 50 percent, which is never a good sign for an incumbent. Republican nominee Rick Scott could still win this election. Leans Republican.
Indiana: Incumbent Senator Donnelly has a sight edge in the polls but is polling well below 50 percent. Republican Mike Braun is within striking distance and should win this race. Leans Republican.
Missouri: Claire McCaskill has widely been considering one of the most vulnerable incumbents in this election cycle. The GOP candidates Josh Hawley has a slight lead in the polls. This race leans Republican.
Montana: Incumbent Jon Tester has a small lead in the polls and is polling near 50 percent in most of the polls. It seems likely he will survive the challenge from Republican Matt Rosendale. This race leans Democrat.
North Dakota: Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp is in serous trouble running against Republican challenger Kevin Cramer, facing a 8.7 percent deficit in the RCP average of polls for this race. A lead like that is solid this late in the race. This race strongly leans Republican.
Nevada: This race between Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Jacky Rosen has tied in the polling averages but the more recent polls lean in favor of Heller. With that direction, this race should go Republican.
Tennessee: Republican Marsha Blackburn holds a lead in all but one of the recent polls and seems likely to defeat Democrat nominee Phil Bredesen next month. This race leans Republican.
Texas: Ted Cruz faces a heavily funded challenge from Democrat nominee Beto O’Rourke., but the polls show he is maintaining a significant lead over the Democrat. Cruz should hold on to his Senate seat. This race leans Republican.
This projection indicates Republicans winning seven of the nine key races. This would give the GOP a 54 seat Senate majority. In the worst case scenario, that Democrats also win Florida, Indiana, and Nevada, Republicans will still hold a 51 seat majority. It is still possible for the GOP to win Arizona and Montana, sweeping the nine key races, and winning a majority of 56 Senate seats.
Every election season has an upset senate race, such as when Ron Johnson first won in Wisconsin, that hardly anyone expects to happen. This year that surprise could come in New Jersey where Bob Menendez is vulnerable due to scandal., The heavily Democrat voter registration edge in the state helps him greatly, but voters there might decide to retire Menendez.
Democrats are simply just not competitive in enough of the swing states to win control over the Senate Clearly the GOP will retain the majority.
